GOP LOOKS STRONG IN NEXT YEAR'S SENATE RACES – AT 9:27 A.M. ET:  The Hill assesses the early signs for next year's Senate races and finds them good for the GOP.  Clearly, if the Republicans can control both the House and the Senate, they can have a decisive impact on Obama's domestic policy, if Obama is reelected, although the effect on foreign policy would be much more uncertain:

An early spate of Democratic Senate retirements has put Republicans in solid shape to retake the majority in the upper chamber next year.

The first edition of The Hill's 2012 race ratings puts five Democratic-held seats in the toss-up column. Republicans need a net gain of at least three seats to win the Senate.

Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) are the two incumbents that top of the list of vulnerable Senate Democrats in 2012. And, thanks to retirements, another three Democratic-held seats are toss-ups -- the ones held by Sens. Kent Conrad (N.D.), Jeff Bingaman (N.M.) and Jim Webb (Va.).

On the House side, Democrats need to pick up 25 seats to win back the majority and, as a starting point, Dems are targeting 14 of the most Democratic-leaning House seats held by Republican lawmakers.

Among them are freshmen Reps. Allen West (R-Fla.), Robert Dold (R-Ill.), Lou Barletta (R-Pa.) and Ann Marie Buerkle (R-N.Y.). All occupy districts won by both Obama in 2008 and Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in 2004; and all begin the cycle in our toss-up category.

The Hill assesses the most competitive races here.  A third of the Senate will be up for election next year, some 23 Democratic seats and only 10 Republican seats, making the Democrats far more vulnerable right out of the gate.  The Hill rates only eight of those Dem seats as safe and another six as likely Democratic.  Only four lean Democratic and five are toss-ups.  For the GOP, five of their ten seats up for reelection are considered safe.  Three are likely GOP, and only two are toss-ups.  The Hill lists Scott Brown of Massachusetts as a toss-up.  I'd rate him as a bit stronger than that.

Much will depend on the economy.  But much will also depend on the quality of the GOP candidates.  The Republicans could have won control of the Senate, or come razor close, in 2010 except for some poor candidate choices in Colorado, Delaware and Nevada.  This is a mistake to be avoided, and that means keeping the rigid ideologists under control.

March 7, 2011